Your grandmother's vote is much more important than yours.

Data that proves, beyond any reasonable doubt, who is the deciding factor in Italian politics

I argue about facts, not opinions; this has always been my mantra. Indeed, it makes no sense to argue or waste time on respective worldviews. As far as I'm concerned, you can believe in the existence of hippogriffs (or in horoscopes); I won't discuss such things. However, if you show me authoritative proof of the existence of hippogriffs, the opinion becomes a fact, and then I will listen. For this reason, in this blog, I cite all my sources. I do not claim to be an oracle; on the contrary, we will have an interesting discussion if you do not think as I do. The sources serve both to validate my argument and to support your rebuttal; this is how a debate works, in my opinion.

I make this long preamble because I have had an idea in my head for some time; however, until I have data to support it, it remains an opinion and as such should not be expressed (except at a pub, but this is not a puband does not want to be one).

Now I have the data, so I am ready to express it (and to argue).

My statement, no longer a simple opinion but supported by facts, is as follows:
IN ITALY, POLITICS IS DRIVEN BY THOSE OVER SIXTY.
THE POLITICAL BALANCE DEPENDS SOLELY ON THE VOTE OF THE ELDERLY.

The die is cast. Now that I have your attention, I will move on to the argument.

I take the following data from the "Annual Report 2025" by Istat, the Italian National Institute of Statistics [1] (the various links are at the end of this article). The average Italian has a median age of 46.8 years as of January 1, 2025. Minors (with Italian citizenship) are 14.8% of the population (as of 2023, p.157 [1]), while those over 65 are 26% (as of 2023, p.157 [1]). More recent data show that the percentage of elderly people has decreased (24.7%, p.71 [1]), but I will stick with the 26% figure to compare data from the same year.

I have not found numbers on the age groups of voters (and according to this 2018 article [2] from "La Stampa" newspaper, this data is not released by the Internal Affair Ministry), but I can make an estimate. Considering that all adults have the right to vote, we can estimate based on the data above that about 30% of voters are over 65.

About 3 out of 10 voters are over 65 years old. This might almost seem like a "fair" figure: the voice of the older population accounts for nearly a third of the total.

However, this is not the case. That voice is not only the political needle in elections, but it also predominates over all others.

Besides looking at the population's demographics, we must observe how Italians get their information. Let us now welcome to the stage the "Annual Observatory on the Information System – Year 2025" [3] by AGCOM, the Italian Communications Authority. In 2023, online media surpassed traditional media in terms of access to information. In other words, more than half of Italians get their news from the Internet (p.4 [3]). "Online" includes newspaper websites, newsletters, and social networks as a whole. However, 50.5% of those registered on "social networks state that they become aware of news and information on social media before other means of communication" (p.5 [3]).

So far, nothing surprising. We now come to the data point that drives this post, my reflection, the Sun, and the other stars. I will copy and translate the excerpt from page 14 directly for you:

The use of social networks and messaging platforms to access news is particularly widespread among the younger segments of the population. However, it is the older age groups that show the highest rates of interaction with the news (comments, likes, shares).

Here is the core of it all. Page 5 also specifies that "older segments of the population" refers to those over sixty-five.

Thirty percent of voters are over sixty-five and, although they are a minority compared to the rest of the population, they are the most active. Interactions are gold for social networks, and the news that gets highlighted is the most commented on. I told you here how a video of mine went viral because of moon landing deniers. I have to thank those who criticized that video (expressing opinions, many opinions, so many opinions, and no supporting data), because the video gained interaction "points" and went viral.

Therefore, the over-sixty-fives are the most active on social media; they determine which news will be read more or less; Italians get their information mainly from social media; Italian politics is determined by the over-sixty-fives.

This is my syllogism.

Generational turnover is very slow in Italy because the population has been aging for 17 years in a row (p.67 of [1]; I told you I use sources for everything). The current situation will remain so in the coming years, barring drastic changes. Today, the Government announced the reception of 500,000 migrants over the next 3 years [4]. Will this change the political balance? No, because they will not be able to vote; they can do so in at least 10 years, it is the minimum term in Italy to ask for citizenship.

This discourse is not intended to be an ultra-technological futurist manifesto for overthrowing establishments. It is a fact that we must come to terms with. It is the explanation for many of the climates of hatred seen on social networks. Furthermore, it demonstrates why in any election at least one party has proposed raising pensions.

I am personally convinced that I will never retire in my life. Current data show that 68.2% of public spending on social benefits goes to pensions, compared to 22.1% on healthcare and 9.7% on welfare (p. 41 [1]). In 2023, INPS (the Italian National Social Security Institute) paid out 338 billion euros in pensions [5]; for comparison, in 5 years, the Universal Basic Income (now drastically reduced) cost €34.5 billion (source: La Stampa [6]). Therefore, every year we spend 10 times on pensions what the Universal Basic Income cost in 4 years.

I am not the only one who argues that the pension system will no longer be sustainable in the long run; the Minister of Economy Giorgetti also said so on July 17, 2024, in a Chamber hearing ("no pension system is sustainable in a demographic framework like the current one") [7].

I have no bitter consolations to offer at this moment. I have no different conclusions. These are the data on which I have built my statements and my syllogism. I leave the comments and, I hope, the rebuttals to you. The article ends here.

Did I make you angry? Did I make you despair? Do you want to have a contact of yours read this article? In any case, click the button below and have whoever you want read it. The ring is open, I await the rebuttals.

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Bibliography:

[1] “Istat Annual Report 2025”: https://www.istat.it/produzione-editoriale/rapporto-annuale-2025-la-situazione-del-paese-il-volume/

[2] “How much is the vote of the elderly worth?”, Paolo Magliocco, February 13, 2018, “La Stampa”; https://www.lastampa.it/cultura/2018/02/13/news/quanto-vale-il-voto-degli-anziani-1.33979857/

[3] “Annual Observatory on the Information System – Year 2025”, https://www.agcom.it/pubblicazioni/osservatori/osservatorio-annuale-sul-sistema-dellinformazione

[4] “'Decreto flussi' approved, 500,000 regular entries in three years”, Rai News, https://www.rainews.it/articoli/2025/06/oggi-sul-tavolo-del-governo-il-decreto-flussi-per-il-prossimo-triennio-migranti-regolari-badanti-colf-lavorostagionale-9df5b65e-9810-435a-9909-1ba534fffeb0.html

[5] Bicameral hearing of the INPS president Gabriele Fava on October 17, 2024; https://www.inps.it/content/dam/inps-site/pdf/inpscomunica/Audizione_Bicamerale_Enti_Gestori_17ottobre2024.pdf

[6] “Citizenship Income, INPS: €34.5 billion spent since 2019”, La Stampa, https://finanza.lastampa.it/News/2024/02/08/reddito-cittadinanza-inps-spesi-34-5-miliardi-da-2019/MTE3XzIwMjQtMDItMDhfVExC

[7] “Giorgetti's alarm on pensions: 'With this framework, the system won't hold'”, Today.it, https://www.today.it/politica/giancarlo-giorgetti-allarme-pensioni-sistema-non-regge.html